👩‍🔬Methodology

Our Methodology for the Accurate Quantification and Qualification of Risks

The composability of DeFi enables the FluidNFT Protocol to connect with the rest of the ecosystem. However, it also exposes the protocol to financial contagion. FluidNFT uses isolation pools to protect against cross-collection risk, and Dutch auctions to mitigate liquidation cascades. Still, each currency and NFT collateral comes with an amount of risk. To safeguard the solvency of the protocol we investigate three different levels.

First we look at the smart contract security and counter-parties in governance. If these risks are too high, the assets will be disqualified from the protocol. Then we look at market risks, which can be managed via the protocol's parameters.

Risk Scale

Our risk scale ranges from lowest risk A+ for the safest assets of the protocol (e.g. Ethereum as a currency and CryptoPunks as a collateral) to the highest risk D-. NFTs with the highest risk factors will not qualify as collateral to shield solvency.

Risk Factors

Smart Contract Risk

Smart contract risk focuses on the technical security of an asset's underlying code. If this is compromised it will threaten the solvency of the protocol. Projects must have undergone audits to be considered. We assess maturity based on the number of days and the number of transactions of the smart contract as a representation of use, community and development. These proxies show how battle-tested the code is.

Smart contract hacks have already resulted in millions of losses and so NFTs with the highest smart-contract risk D and below, cannot be used as collateral. To protect collateral, currencies with a risk rating below B- will not be integrated in the protocol.

Counter-party Risk

Counter-party risk assesses qualitatively how and by who the asset is governed. Specifically for NFTs we observe execution risk; how much of the assets value depends on its creator(s) continuing to execute well over time, the capitalisation of holders, and the degree of holder decentralisation; that no single of group of holders may disproportionally affect the market. The counter-party risk is measured from the level of centralisation corresponding to the number of holders within the collection and the trust in the creator or project over time.

NFTs with high counter-party risk below D+ disqualify as collateral.

Market Risk

Market risks are linked to the market size and fluctuations in offer and demand. These risks are particularly relevant for NFTs used as collateral within the protocol. If and when a loan defaults a liquidation auction is triggered. The markets then need to hold sufficient volume to absorb these liquidations without triggering liquidation cascades.

Currency Risk

Currency risk is evaluated against smart contract, counter-party and market risks. To safeguard collateralised NFTs, only those a risk rating of B- and above can be integrated within the protocol.

Valuation Risk

Valuation risk relates to error appraising NFT valuations. Specifically, NFTs with overestimated valuations may be used to extract value from lending pools and lead to the accumulation of bad debt within the protocol.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk is the risk of there being insufficient liquidity for business-as-usual operations. That lenders would have to wait for borrower repayments until being able to withdraw their capital.

Risk Assessment

Historical data is extracted via third party APIs and combined with on-chain data. The methodology to link historical data to risk factors is based on rigid criteria for each factor.

Risk Quantification Criterion

The historical data is computed through our risk model resulting in risk ratings from the lowest risk A+ to the highest risks D-; quantifying the risk and severity of capital loss over a set period.

Risk Models

Collateral Risk Model

Our Collateral Risk Model is continually being trained and optimised on new data sources. We use best of breed technologies, combined with the latest AI research, and bench-mark against our data providers to ensure we provide the most accurate results.

Currency Risk Model

Our Currency Risk Model is based on the excellent risk analysis from AAVE, as per the table below:

Risk Rating	Days (>)	Transactions (>)	Holders (>)	Permission	Market Cap (>)	Average Volume (1M&3M)	Normalised Volatility (1M&3M&6M)
A+ A A-	730 730 730	500,000,000 100,000,000 10,000,000	100,000,000 1,000,000 500,000	ETH Centralised	$14,900,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $5,000,000,000	$20,000,000,000 $10,000,000,000 $2,500,000,000	0.005 0.015 0.025
B+ B B-	365 365	1,000,000 350,000 350,000	100,000 50,000 25,000	Permissionless Centralised	$500,000,000 $250,000,000 $100,000,000	$700,000,000 $500,000,000 $100,000,000	0.038 0.051 0.064
C+ C C- C-	365 365	100,000 100,000 25,000	10,000 2,500	Controlling functions Controlling functions	$50,000,000 $30,000,000 $15,000,000	$50,000,000 $30,000,000 $15,000,000	0.079 0.094 0.109
D+ D D-	365	25,000		Centralised with audit Centralised Opaque	$10,000,000 $5,000,000	$10,000,000 $5,000,000	0.124 0.139